Global Warming and Global Cooling are all part of a cycle.Climate oscillates.Nature contains a set of checks and balances,It is never steady.We have only to look back over the past 1000 years to see the Medieval Warming,the Little Ice Age, Global Warming and the Current Cooling.The amount of control we have at this level of technology is minimal when compared with the effects of nature.Unfortunately this topic is filled with agendas and downright lies. Our best guide is the behaviour of the sun
There have been many smart comments about shovelling “Global Warming” off the driveway in winter – all climatic upsets create extremes as they oscillate their way up or down.
Nature contains a set of checks and balances – it is never stable. A short look over our shoulder time-wise will testify to that. Ice ages and warmer periods come and go regularly. We have only to look back over the past 1000 years.
They contained a warm period, a little ice age, further warming and we are now entering another cool period.
Do not believe the pundits – they usually have an agenda.
The climatic system is bigger than any political party. The amount of “hothouse gas” we have released over the past couple of hundred years is trivial when compared to the amount being released by nature. The other thing to note is that nature operates in a series of tipping points. Small things have a great effect when the threshold is reached. Climate change Inertia however is massive.
A Tipping Point
A case in point is the release of methane from the permafrost zones of the world. Current figures have the temperature 1 metre from the surface oscillating between +.2C to -1C. This means that the methane reserves trapped by the vegetative remains quickly frozen in the last major ice age are being released for a period in the Arctic summer. They are quickly refrozen which stops the major release.
As our temperature slowly increases, the amount of methane released increases. There is a point where the remains will not be refrozen and the warming effect will increase the rate of release. When this happens, there will be a rapid release, resulting in an increased rate of global warming. This is only the first tipping point. If we reach it.
Trapped Ocean Trench Gases
The next one, which is starting to make itself felt, is the release of methane and other gases trapped in the deep ocean trenches. Higher temperatures increase the turbulence and convection in the oceans.
Currently the amount of methane hydrate trapped in the trenches is massive. The lowest zones of the trenches are cold and the gas mixed with near frozen water forms a dense slurry. An underwater lake if you will.
If these gases are released, the change will come very quickly. In fact, the early releases are already being noticed off the west coast of the US. It seems that the latest sport of the yachties is to find a bubbling mass and fire a flare into it. – BOOM
Geological records from the end of the last major ice age show that the planet warmed by 6C in only 30 years. We are not changing anywhere near that rate. How do we know this?
There are bacteria and small shellfish that need certain temperatures to live. Scientists have noted the change and distribution of cooler and warmer species in sediments laid down over known periods. This evidence is supported by tree rings and ice cores. We know closely when these events occurred.
The Political Side
We cannot be to blame! – Thus sayeth the oil companies.
In truth, the only thing they are to blame for is their ego and fear. They are afraid that we will change from a fossil-fuelled society to a more environmentally friendly system like wind power or solar. This is the reason for the big debate. Over the years, the established power has always used denial and denigration to deflect bad public opinion. They make fun of the people who are proposing something they fear.
The interesting thing is that it is not just the oil companies who stand to lose here. Many universities and many research establishments stand to lose funding unless they conform. Look around, it is not hard to see.
Short-term thinking abounds.
It is a natural cycle
Global temperature oscillates constantly. This is not just seasonal variance, there are also mid and longer term cycles. It is only necessary to look back 1,000 years to see evidence here.
- Medieval warm epoch or little climatic optimum (900AD-1300AD) +1-2C
- The Little Ice Age (1300AD–1850AD) -.6C
- Recent warming (1850AD-2015AD)
- Current cooling (2015AD+)
Aside from the obvious larger magnitude cycles of temperate and ice age, there are many smaller cycles with plenty of evidence to support them. Forget the current hype – research what the palaeontologists are saying. “It is a natural cycle” and “This cycle is bigger than the human release of hothouse gases”.
Consider also the effect of the melting of the icepacks. The albedo of ice ensures that much of the solar radiation is reflected. As the ice melts, the water is darker and absorbs more heat. Less ice forms in the warmer environment, so more heat is absorbed. The reverse is responsible for the creation of ice ages.
One thing that is not being explained is why the Antarctic ice levels appear to be stable while at the same time calving a record number of icebergs. Despite being a solid, ice compresses. Ice at the bottom of the mile+ deep valleys of Antarctica is compressed to what is called Ice 5.
Ice 1 is lighter than water as we all know. As ice is compressed by the massive amount of weight above it, it occupies considerably less space and so is much denser.
When the surface ice flows off as glaciers, the more compressed ice below expands, leaving the surface ice level reasonably constant.
The most obvious thing will be a short term increase of coastal water levels.
This could seriously affect an already stressed economic system.
In the Interim
I would take these changes as a given – maybe. If we enter a solar minimum we will soon reverse these changes – We have already (Ed). Do not panic – that is for the bulk of the population who are in denial. Every difficulty has the seeds of an opportunity – so be on the lookout and take care.
It becomes important now to understand the rules, to be very observant and aware. Our biggest risk is increased seismic and volcanic activity. Any rise or fall in sea levels is likely to be earthquake related and the risk of a short volcanic winter is high. This could be similar to the “Year Without a Summer” caused by the eruption of Mt.Tambora in Indonesia in April, 1815